How the government can raise taxes – and get away with it

It's time to treat Trump like the crisis he is

THE ABUNDANCE AGENDA: Catch up now with my new podcast, The Abundance Agenda. In our most recent episode, Martin and I talk about the maddening story of Barry Thompson, who can’t install solar panels on his ex-council house, and reflect on the emptiness of gestures like declaring a “climate emergency”. We also dig into Peter Hitchens’ one man crusade against Daylight Savings Time, and speak to former Boris advisor, Lord Ben Gascoigne, about the Lords’ Built Environment Committee’s new inquiry into New Towns. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Substack, or wherever you get your podcasts! (Plus episode 4 is out tomorrow!)

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Keir Starmer is a liar.

We’re now two terrible months into the second Trump Presidency, and by now we know the drill. Something terrible happens in America, and when the British Prime Minister is asked about it, he explains what an important ally America is, and how much he respects and likes the President of the United States.

It’s a strange dance, because he knows that he’s lying. The person asking the question knows that he’s lying. And everyone watching knows that he’s lying. Perhaps Donald Trump is the only person who doesn’t.

But as predictable as this routine is, it’s one that we’re going to see repeated constantly for the next four years.

The reason for this is partly opportunism. It’s an easy way for a journalist to make the Prime Minister squirm, and it’s both irresistible and costless for Ed Davey at Prime Minister’s Questions, as his political success is dependent not on relations with the United States, but the Gail’s Bakery belt.

However, despite this, the reality is that Keir Starmer is right to lie – because that’s all he can do.

As cathartic as it might be to imagine the British Prime Minister having a Love Actually moment, and telling the American President what he really thinks, everyone knows that it would be stupid to do so. Britain is far too exposed to Trump’s whims, as just one short Truth Social post could fuck up everything from military and intelligence cooperation, to transatlantic trade.

And for better or worse, we’ve spent eighty years deeply entangling our fate with that of the United States, so that when America sneezes, Britain is standing only inches away with its mouth agape, ready to receive the germs.

So we live with Keir Starmer’s lies for the greater good. We need them because they buy us time to build up Europe’s independent defence capabilities, so that we are no longer dependent on our newly unreliable ally.

But there is also a serious problem here for the government, as there’s another work of make-believe the government is engaged in. Because the truth is that to grow our military capabilities, not to mention sustain our broader public spending commitments, Britain is going to have to raise taxes, or increase borrowing to do it.

Or to put it another way, there’s a massive political shit-storm ahead, and very little the government can do to avoid it… or can they?

As luck would have it, I’ve come up with a plan for how the government can raise taxes and just about get away with it.

And it all begins with treating Donald Trump like the crisis he actually is.