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Richard Gadsden's avatar

I wrote a long comment, copied it to fix a typo, deleted, and then discovered I hadn't actually copied it.

But the summary is:

You can divide air travel into four. One can be replaced by the new battery-electric planes there will be in the 2030s - Heart Aerospace have 200+ orders for their 19-seater, and there are others making similar progress. One can be replaced by high-speed rail. And the other two cannot be replaced as is.

The electrifiable option is short-distance low-demand routes, usually to islands (e.g. flights to Shetland) or to very very low-population areas (e.g. the Australian Outback). These are usually subsidised by city-dwelling taxpayers, and paying a little more for electric planes, especially given the noise-pollution advantages, should not be impossible. They claim these will be in service in 2026, but I don't believe them and expect it to be more like 2030.

The high-speed rail option is short-distance high-demand routes overland. Europe, the US Northeast/Midwest, China, Japan, etc. China has the longest routes and now has a few high-speed sleepers; Europe's routes are getting longer as the national networks get connected together and sleepers make sense for 1000km to 2000km routes, which should cover most of the continent.

The two that can't be replaced are short-distance high-demand routes overseas, such as flights to Ibiza or Majorca; only people who can't fly will be interested in a long ferry journey (it takes far too long).

And the other is longer distances. Anything over about 2000km means at least day and a night on a train, and many such distances include crossing an ocean; ocean liners do exist, but they take a week to cross the Atlantic and two to cross the Pacific. No-one is going to take multi-day journey over an eight hour flight.

Ferries are much more fuel/emissions efficient than flights; liners are a bit better than flying, but nothing to write home about; cruise ships have about the same emissions per passenger-km as flying; trains can potentially be zero emission once we decarbonise electricity which we are doing anyway.

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Danny Taylor's avatar

Hi James,

Interesting read!

One thing I’d like to add. Yes, aviation does not represent a large proportion of total CO2 emissions, but aviation’s impact on the climate mostly comes from non-CO2 impacts. Though this would add to your argument that aviation is just incredibly difficult to decarbonise.

Two papers worth checking out that discusses this:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231020305689

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac286e

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