Interesting piece though I am disturbed by the image at the top which suggests that even when we have invented hover cars there will still be wankers who park across the pavement. We can only hope that the wheelchairs of the future will be equipped with laser blasters.
Talking about Abundance like this brings to mind the Culture novels by Iain M Banks. A galaxy spanning society with so much wealth and super powerful AI beings (the minds) running everything. If course the drama for the novels is based on where the Culture rubs up against other societies. But if that is what Abundance is about then sign me up 🙂
I'm going to get hold of a copy of Abundance shortly. The way I see it, ever since the 1973 oil crisis we've had 52 years of a dismal "estrangement from modernity" (Frank Furedi), of a "luddite Left" as someone else puts it, fearful of the future and basically Malthusian (i.e., reactionary) in outlook, which has effectively ceded the cause of technological utopianism to the right-wing tech bros: a weird case of ideological cross-dressing that shows how confused the present era is. In short, time for a major shakeup and shake-out.
I would love it if Abundance took off. It's an area where there's by far the most commonality between the writers and thinkers I follow on the right and on the left.
I do wonder if the left can overcome the blocking elements - which seem to have more totemic value for the left. Environmental law, rights of NGOs, judicial review, (for energy) net zero, all seem to be strong sacred values to be overcome (plus the political challenge, which the right is equally guilty of, of NIMBYism). I worry that rather like the Tories spent 14 years saying they wanted to cut immigration but never being willing to pull the levers that would do so, the left may take the same stance on Abundance.
Still, I'd never have predicted six months ago a Labour Government would cut aid to fund defence, so maybe if the vibes shift enough, anything is possible!
By chance are you trained as an economist? I see your analysis as having the same flaws as Yglesias and Smith’s analyses. You all seize on specific events as determining societal outcomes, while ignoring other important factors. For example, the abundance agenda is certainly necessary, but hardly sufficient. Its bypassing of issues around distribution of power and wealth, as well as media messaging and grassroots organizing, are examples of potential failure points.
Great synthesis, James. Here we are at the intersection of two big trends:
(1) The first, is the cyclical paradigm shift in how US institutions relate to Americans (and UK+EU) as described by Neil Howe in The Fourth Turning is Here. We're in the trough of an ~85 year cycle where an old paradigm dies (winter phase from 2008-2033) and a new one emerges (spring phase 2033-2050). That cycle is echoed by geopolitical forecaster, George Friedman, in Storm Before the Calm. The timing of this is echoed by Ray Dalio in Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.
(2) The second trend, not cyclical but exponential, is Ray Kurzweil's observation of computing power per constant dollar. This observation shows that the price performance of computing has improved 10x every 5 years for 90 years in spite of all the world's dynamism. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is arriving on time, as expected, and it's potential to explode "abundance" is greater than any other development in human history. Yes, there is peril with the promise, but that is something to be managed like atomic energy, bio-weapons, and the like.
In line with your Abundance vibe thesis, and this intersection of trends, Peter Diamandis' (founder of X-Prize) is a very strong advocate of this emerging Abundance narrative. His focus is on harnessing the powers of AI, robotics, and health/longevity breakthroughs to solve our social, financial, and environmental challenges.
As Howe, Friedman, and Dalio, lay out, there is always a crisis when (about every 87 years) the outmoded paradigm is dismantled and a new one is born. The seeds of the new paradigm are scattered and planted in the run up to the crisis. I believe this is what you are calling out in your Abundance vibe shift article.
Interesting piece though I am disturbed by the image at the top which suggests that even when we have invented hover cars there will still be wankers who park across the pavement. We can only hope that the wheelchairs of the future will be equipped with laser blasters.
Talking about Abundance like this brings to mind the Culture novels by Iain M Banks. A galaxy spanning society with so much wealth and super powerful AI beings (the minds) running everything. If course the drama for the novels is based on where the Culture rubs up against other societies. But if that is what Abundance is about then sign me up 🙂
I'm going to get hold of a copy of Abundance shortly. The way I see it, ever since the 1973 oil crisis we've had 52 years of a dismal "estrangement from modernity" (Frank Furedi), of a "luddite Left" as someone else puts it, fearful of the future and basically Malthusian (i.e., reactionary) in outlook, which has effectively ceded the cause of technological utopianism to the right-wing tech bros: a weird case of ideological cross-dressing that shows how confused the present era is. In short, time for a major shakeup and shake-out.
I would love it if Abundance took off. It's an area where there's by far the most commonality between the writers and thinkers I follow on the right and on the left.
I do wonder if the left can overcome the blocking elements - which seem to have more totemic value for the left. Environmental law, rights of NGOs, judicial review, (for energy) net zero, all seem to be strong sacred values to be overcome (plus the political challenge, which the right is equally guilty of, of NIMBYism). I worry that rather like the Tories spent 14 years saying they wanted to cut immigration but never being willing to pull the levers that would do so, the left may take the same stance on Abundance.
Still, I'd never have predicted six months ago a Labour Government would cut aid to fund defence, so maybe if the vibes shift enough, anything is possible!
By chance are you trained as an economist? I see your analysis as having the same flaws as Yglesias and Smith’s analyses. You all seize on specific events as determining societal outcomes, while ignoring other important factors. For example, the abundance agenda is certainly necessary, but hardly sufficient. Its bypassing of issues around distribution of power and wealth, as well as media messaging and grassroots organizing, are examples of potential failure points.
Great synthesis, James. Here we are at the intersection of two big trends:
(1) The first, is the cyclical paradigm shift in how US institutions relate to Americans (and UK+EU) as described by Neil Howe in The Fourth Turning is Here. We're in the trough of an ~85 year cycle where an old paradigm dies (winter phase from 2008-2033) and a new one emerges (spring phase 2033-2050). That cycle is echoed by geopolitical forecaster, George Friedman, in Storm Before the Calm. The timing of this is echoed by Ray Dalio in Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.
(2) The second trend, not cyclical but exponential, is Ray Kurzweil's observation of computing power per constant dollar. This observation shows that the price performance of computing has improved 10x every 5 years for 90 years in spite of all the world's dynamism. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is arriving on time, as expected, and it's potential to explode "abundance" is greater than any other development in human history. Yes, there is peril with the promise, but that is something to be managed like atomic energy, bio-weapons, and the like.
In line with your Abundance vibe thesis, and this intersection of trends, Peter Diamandis' (founder of X-Prize) is a very strong advocate of this emerging Abundance narrative. His focus is on harnessing the powers of AI, robotics, and health/longevity breakthroughs to solve our social, financial, and environmental challenges.
As Howe, Friedman, and Dalio, lay out, there is always a crisis when (about every 87 years) the outmoded paradigm is dismantled and a new one is born. The seeds of the new paradigm are scattered and planted in the run up to the crisis. I believe this is what you are calling out in your Abundance vibe shift article.
Thanks. Joe
SterlingInsights.Substack.com